Home Uncategorized The historically adjusted unemployment rate falls to 3.0% in January

The historically adjusted unemployment rate falls to 3.0% in January


by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine Vermont’s statewide seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for January was 3.0%. This reflects a decrease of one tenth from December. The adjusted population and labor force estimates resulted in an overall increase in the number of unemployed in Vermont. The December 2021 rate has been adjusted upwards to 3.1% compared to the original estimate of 2.5%. At the beginning of each year, the Vermont Department of Labor adjusts rates based on revised US Census data. This results in a lag in the communication of the January rate. It can also result in significant readjustments from previous months, such as this year.

Vermont’s labor force has shrunk by more than 26,000 since January 2019, just before the pandemic hit the state. But the new estimates show an increase in the labor force compared to last year and last month, while the number of unemployed continues to rise. The increase in the number of employees slightly offset last month’s losses. All of this resulted in a higher starting point for last year’s data.

Meanwhile, the comparable rate in the United States in January was 4.0%, up one-tenth of a percentage point from the revised December estimate.

Vermont’s seasonally adjusted data for January shows Vermont’s civilian labor force increased by 777 from the previous month’s revised estimate (see Table 1). The number of employed persons increased by 941 and the number of unemployed fell by 164. The change in the number of employed persons was statistically significant in the seasonally adjusted series.

Vermont Labor Commissioner Michael Harrington said, “While this news release announces new monthly data, it also marks the re-release of historical data for calendar year 2021, which occurs concurrently with the January numbers. . This is more visible this year as partial results from the 2020 census are incorporated into statistical models for the first time. Most notably, the 2020 census results reflected an unexpected increase in Vermont’s population to 643,077. This population increase translated into an increase in all major components of the labor force. Even though labor force and employment estimates have been re-estimated at higher levels, statistical models still identify a significant decline in the labor force and the number of employed people after the onset of the “COVID recession”. Compared to January 2019, estimates for January 2022 show a decline of more than 26,000 Vermonters in the labor force, a significant change in a very short time. As Vermont continues to recover, the Department of Labor has expanded its business services team and added a foreign labor specialist to meet the needs of Vermont job seekers and employers. If you are looking for a job or have a job opening, be sure to visit VermontJobLink.com.

January unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 2.6% in White River Junction to 6.9% in Derby (note: local labor market area unemployment rates are not shown). seasonally adjusted – see Table 2). For comparison, the unadjusted January unemployment rate for Vermont was 3.5%, which represents an increase of one percentage point from the unadjusted revised December level and a decrease of nine tenths of a percentage point. a percentage point from a year ago.

Analysis of employment changes by industry

January’s seasonally adjusted data show an increase of 400 jobs over December’s revised data. There was an increase of 1,700 jobs between the preliminary and revised December estimates due to the inclusion of more data. The seasonally adjusted changes in the month in January varied at the industry level. Those that experienced a notable increase are: mining and logging (+100 jobs or +12.5%) and construction (+300 jobs or +2.0%). Industries with notable declines include: private educational services (-300 jobs or -2.5%) and arts, entertainment and recreation (-100 or -2.4%).

Preliminary “unadjusted” employment estimates for January show a decrease of 8,400 jobs from the revised December figures. As with the “seasonally adjusted” data, this change in the month comes from the revised December figures which saw an increase of 100 jobs compared to the preliminary estimates. The broader economic picture can be seen by focusing on the changes over the year in this data series. As detailed in preliminary “unadjusted” January data, total private industries increased by 10,000 jobs (+4.3%) and government employment (including public education) increased by 1. 800 jobs (+3.5%) over the past year. .

The February unemployment and employment report is scheduled for release on Friday, March 25, 2022 at 10:00 a.m. View the most recent report from our Labor Market Information division at http://www.vtlmi.info/press.pdf.

Source: Vermont Department of Labor 3.14.2022