Homes are taking twice as long to build during the coronavirus pandemic and a nationwide construction boom, but analysts are warning the sector is facing a hangover as the record level of construction declines.
The leading homebuilding sector body, the Housing Industry Association (HIA), has raised concerns that two years of minimal population growth will start to be felt by mid-2022, even as borders open.
In its latest quarterly outlook, the association acknowledges that those who have tried to build during the pandemic have faced increased costs and delays due to labor and material shortages as the sector crosses its course. biggest year ever. Blockages have also presented a challenge, but are not cited as a major factor in the delays. On the HIA figures, this has led to an explosion in the time it takes to build a house from a period of seven to nine months, to over 12 months.
But HIA chief economist Tim Reardon said the experiment should not be the norm over the next few years. In 2020/21, the association estimates that there was a record 135,390 single-family dwellings that began construction, 32.5% more than the previous year.
This is expected to be a “short lived” record with isolated housing starts in calendar year 2021 to exceed 143,100.
“The residential construction industry has pulled the economy out of recession,” Reardon said.
But housing starts are expected to fall to 125,030 in 2021/22. It is at this point that the industry will begin to feel the effects of two years without strong population growth, higher construction costs, and the end of the federal government’s HomeBuilder program.
Mr Reardon said homebuilding would decline below decade averages, falling to 97,850 in 2022/2023 and a low of 93,770 the following year.